Category Archives: Climate Change

Aryas C cycle – climate change natural

http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Repository/ml.asp?Ref=VE9JQ0cvMjAwNy8wNC8wMyNBcjAyMjAy&Mode=HTML&Locale=english-skin-custom

SORRY STATE

 

‘Man, be not proud, global warming is not your creation’

 

TIMES NEWS NETWORK 

Chandigarh: Last week, Sydney switched off lights to express its growing concern about global warming and the need for humans to do something about it. But listen to Ritesh Arya, a city-based Guiness book record holder hydro-geologist, the Australians need not have bothered. For, he says, humans are too insignificant to damage the environment that dramatically.

Arya, a PU alumni, will be giving an oral presentation at the third international conference on climate and water in Helsinki. The presentation will be at the session on “Climate change and water resources: Risk and risk management.”

Talking to TOC, Arya said, ‘‘Although global warming is a much-hyped subject, there is mounting evidence that human activity is too insignificant to impact Earth’s ecology so drastically. Whatever findings we have so far do not link up properly and science has not been able to justify many of the stands we have taken.’’

For instance, he says, ‘‘if human activity is to be blamed for a hole in the ozone layer, then it really does not make sense that the hole is on Antarctica which sees near negligible human activity. Also there is growing evidence that global warming followed by global cooling is a natural cycle and will happen with or without human contribution.’’

The entire Indus river was a glacier once upon a time, he said. Global cooling resulted in ice ages and global warming started melting it. The glaciers were now confined to higher Himalayas, clearly showing that how little impact man had in controlling the warming process, he said.

Referring to recent reports indicating that Himalayan glaciers will melt by 2030, Arya said, “I would give them some more years say by 2060 and then the glacial ages or the global cooling will start again resulting in the formation of glaciers and beginning of ice age. Cooling will have to follow warming process. That is sure,” he said

Dr Aryas C curves and Global Warming phenomenon Natural

http://antigreen.blogspot.in/2011/01/skeptical-paper-accepted-for.html

Skeptical paper accepted for presentation at GCGW
(Global Conference on Global Warming) Lisbon, Portugal
The paper is “C  curves and the Global Warming phenomenon”.
Summary from author Ritesh Arya [aryadrillers@gmail.com] below. 
Paleo climatic signatures of Indus Glacier and Indus river discovered by Dr Ritesh Arya are taphonomically  very well preserved on granite’s of Ladakh Indian Himalayas. Since these resemble alphabet C so he  termed them C cycles. Protruded portion shows  cooling and depression shows warming times. Clearly                      showing cyclicty of global warming and cooling since last Ice Age (approx 11714 years ago). He discovered 10  cycles, 2 half and 8 complete cycles. Presently we are  in half cycle already crossed peak of warming and  gradually entering into cooling times with little ICE  Age around 2178 years 
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Abstract
The paper for the first time shows actual geological evidence to show global warming is a 100% natural cyclic process and man and his activities have no role in enhancing or reducing the cyclic process.
The proposal highlights the discovery of paleo climatic signatures by Dr Arya carved on batholiths of Ladakh Indian Himalayas due to climate change mainly induced due to global warming and cooling since time immemorial and tends to redefine global warming as part of a natural cyclic process responsible for transporting various materials deposited during global cooling times.

It is evident that we are in a global warming era and the process of warming has been continuing since the last ICE age — believed to have ended around 10,000 years ago. Taphonomical research of these preserved signatures on banks of the River Indus reveal that beautiful C shaped structures were carved by action of Indus Glacier(cooling) and river (warming) in past on the batholiths.

Structures preserved clearly show that warming and cooling don’t have a linear or a hockey stick curve relationship but follow a C type structure. If these paleo-signatures embedded are critically analysed they show cyclicity in events of warming and cooling in form of C alphabet. Where C represents and is symbolic for completeness of natural climatic cycles of cooling – warming – cooling processes.

 If we write the alphabet C then starting and ending of C alphabet show some linearity which represents – cooling and curve portion in C alphabet represents warming. C shape also shows that cooling-warming and again cooling are all part of natural cyclic processes and the transition from one into another is somewhat gradational in nature, one complements the other.

 He discovered 10 cycles, 2 half and 8 complete cycles.                            Presently we are in half cycle already crossed peak of   warming and gradually entering into cooling times  with little  ICE Age around 2178 years 

Center of C alphabet represents global warming maxima and it is at this time where maximum mountain flash flooding leading to maximum destruction and erosion along glacio-fluvial basin takes place ultimately leading to sea level rise and land submergence in coasts. This global maxima in C curve is cause of maximum destruction and submergence.

The author was able to discover 8 such cycles and 1 half intermittent cycle. Actually after every four cycles of 1176 years we have a half cycle of 588 years. Beauty of these cycles is uniformity in thickness and size. If 10,000 years is bench mark then each C cycle represents a time of about 1176.47 years roughly and each global maximum(marked by massive flash floods, cyclones and sea level rise will be around 500-600 years respectively.

Thus by knowing which part of the C curve paleo signature we are in, we can actually predict whether we are entering the global warming or cooling phase and when will the next global warming maxima going to be.

But lot depends of accuracy of exact age of the last ICE age. Presently we are in a half cycle and seeing these signatures at present it seems that we have entered into warming phenomenon and are yet to experience the global maxima in the present C curve which may be around from today.

The proposal tries to corroborate the geomorphological evidences carved by the forces of warming in the historical past along with Borewell data to understand the dimensions of the warming events in the geological past.

Historical and religious events are also used to corroborate the findings of C curves and make the understanding of warming and cooling simpler and easier and end the debate about man-made global warming processes

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PPT  of Dr Arya’s C curve Climate Change Natural at TED

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Skeptical 
Video Link of Dr Aryas talk on Climate Change Natural at TEDx
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 Other video links of Dr Arya on Climate Change Natural

Panic over global warming misplaced: Dr Arya – The Tribune

Panic over global warming misplaced: Dr Arya
Rakesh Lohumi
Tribune News Service

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2008/20080219/himachal.htm#4

Shimla, February 18
Terming the hype and panic over “global warming” as “unnecessary”, well-known hydro-geologist Ritesh Arya seeks to redefine the phenomenon as a natural cyclic process for transporting the weathered and eroded material accumulated during the global cooling phase in the past.

Arya, who shot into limelight for harnessing ground water in mountainous regions, has in his latest research paper to be presented at the “Global conference on global warming” being held at Istanbul in July later in the year introduced a new concept of bio-geologic cycle to explain the relevance of global warming in shaping the earth now and in the future.

“There is urgent need to put the phenomenon, which had not been triggered off suddenly, in the right perspective as today almost every human activity right from vehicular emissions to use of polythene is being linked to global warming which was a much larger event which started as soon as the Ice Age ended. The fact was that the “biotic” agents (man and other living organisms) had a very small role compared to the “abiotic” (geological, geomorphologic, climatologic, planetary and hydrological) events like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, movement of glaciers and landslides” he told The Tribune here today.

His theory is based on the observations made by him during the drilling operations to tap sustainable water sources by developing groundwater resources in various “hydrostraigraphic” zones identified by him over the past 15 years in the high-altitude areas, including the cold deserts of Ladakh, across the north-western Himalayas. The core material found during deep drilling on high mountain areas like Khardung La (over 18,000 ft) was geologically similar to the one found on the banks of the Indus river which established a link between global warming and glacial movements. Rivers like the Saraswati vanished long time ago when there were no industries, no polluting vehicles or other human activities which could cause global warming, which are being termed as the main contributing factors by present-day environmentalists. Disappearance of the river was a geological event caused by global warming, explains Arya, who found a place in the Guinness Book of World Records for his achievement in finding groundwater in the Chushul area at an altitude of more than 14,000 ft.

The phenomenon could not be understood in isolation and it had to be seen in totality. Global cooling and global warming are like day and night, one will follow the other and instead of pressing the panic button the effort should be on “managing the situation”. However, it should be kept in mind that human effort would be of no consequence in reversing the mega process.