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Dr Aryas C Cycle and Climate change Natural : Geological Perspective

Climate change Natural : Geological Perspective
Dr Ritesh Arya,

Highlights of Presentation made by Dr Ritesh Arya at TEDx India 2011

Paper also accepted for presentation at Global Conference on Global Warming 2011 Lisbon

“GOD give me the COURAGE to change the things I can (alternate energy and better technologies which create less POLLUTION) ACCEPT the things I can not change( CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL WARMING & COOLING processes)SERENITY and WISDOM to know the DIFFERENCE.” Dr Ritesh Arya to explain CLimate Change

RITESH ARYA - YouTube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScDs9h6xTOs

 

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScDs9h6xTOs23 Jun 2011 - 20 min - Uploaded by TEDxTalks
RITESH ARYA.
Climate Change talks start with the word Climate Change but the very next moment they are talking about OZONE depletion,Green House Effect,Pollution and now CO2. Then they propose stupid ideas like Breathe less you are exhaling more CO2 and may be contributing to climate change or Cow dungs major contributor to warming. UNIPCC over the years have worked hard with great difficulty to establish the relationship between activities of man,industrialisation,pollution with climate change but failed to establish and provide any convincing scientific evidence to support the same. If this relationship between GHGs and temperature propagated by UNIPCC is to be believed then we are heading towards a great catastrophe because by 2050 GHGs are bound to increase exponentially due to rise in CO2 emission due to increased Industrial and Infra structural growth to support the growing population which will also reach 9 billion mark if UN reports are to be believed.Therefore according to Al Gore the temperatures should rise exponentially leading to alarming rates leading to major catastrophe and finally extinction. But this will not be true…..New Geological research of Dr Arya based on discovery of Paleo climatic signatures in the shape of C cycles from Ladakh Indian Himalayas clearly show that temperatures will not increase but will dip down after reaching Global Maxima. Actually there is no relationship between the two. Global Temperatures are controlled by natural cyclic process and not by emission’s natural (volcanic eruptions) or man made.

It is important to note POLLUTION is 100% MAN MADE but POLLUTION can also be 100% NATURAL(volcanic emission’s) but CLIMATE CHANGE is 100% NATURAL..POLLUTION can be controlled using ALTERNATE ENERGY RESOURCES and BETTER TECHNOLOGIES….but CLIMATE CHANGE is 100% NATURAL CYCLIC PROCESS

Today everybody has an opinion on Climate change but nobody knows what to do about it. Still everybody specially the politicians wants to take action and operate on climate change without actually knowing the cause of the disease. According to present findings by the author “Climate Change is a natural cyclic process like DAY & NIGHT comprising of Global warming and cooling process which are cyclic in nature wherein global warming acts as a TRANSPORTING AGENCY in nature, responsible for transporting all the materials deposited during global cooling times. Floods and cyclones are two important agents of global warming”. These activities of climate change are very well preserved in the rocks in the form of curving embedded in the massive rocks. So these tahponomical evidences of paleoclimatic signatures provide a good record of warming and cooling events since the last glaciation around 11714 from present as per International Reference standards.

Present paper for the first time reports the discovery of paleo-climatic signatures embedded in the massive batholiths of granite in the north West Indian Himalayas of Ladakh beautifully preserved in the form of C curves.These curves resemble the alphabet C hence their name. Starting of alphabet C represents global cooling maxima or the Ice age,the top flat portion represents transition from ice age to cooling age whereas central portion represents transition from cooling to warming times. Centre of alphabet C represents global warming Maxima marked by massive floods and cyclones causing maximum amount of transportation of the material at any given time of natural cycle. Therefore it is the time of maximum destruction in any climate cycle. Intensity of destruction decreases once we are away from maxima and heads towards transition from global warming maxima to warming and finally cooling and culminating at global cooling maxima i.e Ice Age marked by completion of alphabet C. where erosion and deposition are the dominant factors.

Taphonomical analysis of these paleoclimatic signature indicate uniformity in the shape and size of these curves and establishes a definite cyclicity in the spacing and occurrence of these curves.These cycles can be complete or Big C cycles or small or half C cycle. After every 4 complete C cycle we have one small or half C cycle. 10 such C cycles were discovered by the author during the investigations

Based on calculations by the author there are 8 complete C cycles and 2 half or small C cycles.
So each complete C cycle represents 1338 years whereas half C cycle represents 669 years.


Important question here is where are we in these cycles. If International Reference Standards is to be taken as the base line for the last Ice Age then definitely we are in the middle of small or half C cycle and Global Warming Maxima was in 2010 marked by global flooding event of small magnitude witnessed in all the continents. I myself was trapped in massive flooding event in Leh Ladakh India on 5thAugust 2010 and was miraculously escaped on that night. The flooding event recorded deposition of 3m – 8m in a fraction of second which left 190 people dead and damage to loss of animal life and property.

What Next …where are we heading to? This is an important question……and if the carvings in the Batholith are to be believed then we are heading towards transition from global warming maxima to warming this period would last for 167 years where temperatures would start dipping gradually and naturally. Finally warming will phase into cooling culminating into Ice Age…..Accordingly the next Ice age will again be a small Ice age as was witnessed in 1677 leading to frozen Thames and will be around 2341 AD. However the next complete global warming maxima will be around 3014 years,which will lead to destruction of major civilisations as it happened in the historical past Role of these floods need to be investigated in destruction of Indus valley or Mesopotamium civilisation in the historical past.

What is the solution
UNFCCC has proposed Carbon Credits,Clean Development Mechanism,Carbon Capture and Storage but these are just Credit Games and have nothing to do with combating Climate Change because a small flood will destroy our future generation when they will be busy trading Carbon credits,thinking it to be the best solution to cope with climate change.

Since the problem of Climate Change is natural and geological process are involved in its entire mechanism so the solution to combat climate change needs to be geological in nature. And accordingly Building sustainable habitats in geologically sound locations away from shores,coasts and banks of rivers or streams is the only true solution to combat climate change.

Global Warming is the best part to be on this planet earth…………. and so called GHGs specially the CO2 is our best friend
We need more CO2 to grow more food to sustain and support our growing population….Simple FOOD CHAIN CYCLE

I have a suggestion for people who propagate otherwise ,,,,,,
Why do they not stop living here and start living in Arctic Antarctica or if they want some special treatment they can opt for living in POLES……..

Groundwater,Glaciers,Global Warming & Flooding in Himalayas -Dr Aryas in World Water Week 2009 Sweden

http://www.worldwaterweek.org/documents/WWW_PDF/2009/wednesday/T4/Ritesh_Arya_stockholm_presentation.pdf

 

Water is blood of Mother earth We need better doctors to operate on our Water systems otherwise we may end our lives in in World Water Week 2009 Sweden

Groundwater,Glaciers,Global Warming & Flooding in Himalayas paper presented by Dr Aryas in World Water Week 2009 Stokholm ,Sweden             Author: Dr. Ritesh Arya

Arya Drillers, India
Keywords: groundwater, glacier, flooding, global warming, Himalayas
Introduction/Problem Identification
Groundwater is poorly understood subject in mountains specially the high altitude cold mountain deserts of Ladakh, Himalayas. Geological complexity, geographical inaccessibility, climatic extreme variability and unavailability of hydro geological data all combine to make groundwater, a mystery
to understand and difficult to develop as a resource for policy makers and politicians. Present paper
tries to bridge this gap by compiling the available data from the wells drilled and establishes the relationship between groundwater, glacier, floods and global warming in mountains so that groundwater could be understood and used in totality. On one hand paper laments that global warming is natural
cyclic process and glacial melting will lead to increased water in the natural mountain system which supports increased evolution and diversification of life forms on other it advocates steps required to cope with floods induced due to glacial melt which pose great threat to habitants in valleys.
Analysis/Results and Implications for Policy and/or Research
Present paper highlights significance of groundwater exploration for sustainable water development
in Himalayas. To explain relationship between groundwater, glacial melt, flooding and global warming, I am presenting Case study of Khardungla-Leh catchment in Ladakh Indian Himalayas. This catchment houses Khardungla (K) glacier at the top and Leh town at its distal end on the banks of Indus River. This K glacier extended upto Spituk in geological past but today it is on the verge of extinction and is confined only to the peeks of Khardungla at 18000 feet above the mean sea level.
The K glacier located at top of the Batholithic hill is the main source of water (both surface and
groundwater) to the Leh town. Surface water from the glacial melt and Indus River were the only source of drinking water in the Leh till end of 20th century. Experiments carried by author laid the foundation for sustainable development of groundwater resources. Groundwater today has become
a household commodity and everyone is enjoying the fruits of resource which was considered to be
nonexistent about a decade ago. Important question here is how long are these resources going to last.
Global warming has already taken its toll and K glacier has already receded considerably. It is matter of time, groundwater will last till the snow cover remains in the Khardungla. No Glacier means no water in Leh catchment. All streams and spring sources would dry up or become seasonal. This is
story of all glacial mountain catchments the world over.

All the major glaciers world over had already receded much before the advent of man or industrialisation. Today these mountain glaciers are on verge of extinction. Impact of man and his activities was negligible in those times but still rates of  receding of glaciers were very high. Indus glacier itself owe its extinction from Indus basin to global warming which happens to be natural cyclic process and has nothing to do with man or his activity or rather to any geological activity on sustainable basis in past. Author after studying more than 1000 wells drilled in different hydrostratigraphic formation across Himalayas clearly shows that global warming has resulted in melting of glaciers since time immemorial. Immediate impact of this activity is increased groundwater and its storage in mountains. Long term impact would be their activity leading to flash flooding once storage capacity of these hills exceeds the threshold. This activity will first lead to mountain bursting and cause flash floods which have capacity to wash anything which 168 Workshop 5: Safe Water Services in Post-conflict and Post-disaster Contexts comes in its way downstream within seconds. If cyclones and hurricanes are talked about and feared events in coastal areas, mountain flash flooding is an event to be watched in future in mountains.

Today economic compulsions and geological ignorance is forcing the habitations to flourish along the valleys which were considered to be geologically fragile few decades ago but negligence of the
geological data will lead them to pay a heavy prise in near future. A simple flood will lead to heavy loss of life and property in the mountain state.
Based on observation of samples collected while drilling borewells to develop groundwater resources to provide drinking water for army and civil population in high altitude, cold, mountain deserts of
Ladakh which are geologically complex and geographically isolated for more than 6 months due to extreme cold climatic conditions. Though author was able to develop groundwater for providing sustainable water solutions on one hand but study also resulted in discovering evidences of Indus
Glacier deposits in borewell samples at depth varying from 70 feet to 130 feet below ground and paleoglaciated deposits of K glacier of 290 feet thick at North Polu (base camp for Khardungla) at
altitude of 15000 feet above the mean sea Level. Presence of paleo Indus glaciated channels at these depths are source of rich reservoir of groundwater resources for meeting drinking water requirement for Leh town now and in near future on one hand but did this resource (melting of Indus glacier) lead
to flooding and extinction of Indus Valley civilization has yet to be investigated? Important question here again is will the thickness of 290 feet deposits at North Polu actually lead to dooms day for Leh town in near future! Though glaciers are main source of groundwater recharge in mountains, other
side of glacial melting (FLASH FLOODING) due to global warming is very dangerous event threatening the very existence of the communities residing in hills or mountain valleys. Therefore if proper precautions are not made while selecting habitations entire civilisations along mountain basins will
become extinct. Loss of Indus valley civilisation in past has to be examined from this point of view.

Though at present this subject and phenomenon is poorly understood but detailed study holds key for our very existence in near future.